Political leaders across Northern Nigeria are quietly reassessing their strategies after Usman Sarki, a prominent political commentator, published an analysis arguing that the region must pursue internal renewal rather than cling to old power-sharing arrangements. The piece, titled "Northern Nigeria Beyond Power: The Imperative of Internal Renewal," landed in Abuja's political circles last week and has since circulated through WhatsApp groups used by regional party officials, traditional rulers, and business leaders.
The Drucker Question
Sarki's analysis draws on management theorist Peter Drucker's observation that organisations must periodically reinvent themselves or face irrelevance. The commentator applies this framework to Northern Nigeria's political structures, arguing that regional elites have relied on ethnic arithmetic and federal power-sharing deals since independence rather than building institutions capable of delivering services.
"Northern politicians have treated governance as a zero-sum game," Sarki wrote. "They negotiate positions at the federal level and distribute resources to loyalists. Meanwhile, the region's roads crumble, schools lack teachers, and hospitals have no medicine."
In Kano, where street vendors now compete with organised traders from Lagos and Enugu, the analysis has struck a nerve. Small business owners interviewed near the Central Mosque said they have watched their city lose economic ground to southern cities that invested in infrastructure and skill development decades ago.
Peter Obi's Shadow
The timing of Sarki's piece coincides with renewed activity around Peter Obi's political movement. The Labour Party candidate won 6.1 million votes in the 2023 presidential election, many of them drawn from urban youth in northern cities including Kano, Kaduna, and Jos. Since the election, Obi has maintained a high public profile, regularly criticising government policies on inflation and education funding.
Northern politicians who expected Obi's influence to fade have been disappointed. Instead, local chapters of the Labour Party have expanded in 14 northern states, attracting young professionals frustrated by the lack of jobs despite the region's large working-age population. A survey conducted by Stears Business in January found that 67% of Nigerians aged 18-35 consider Obi the most credible opposition voice, with support highest in urban northern centres.
Party officials in Kaduna confirmed that membership applications have increased by 30% since October, though they declined to provide names. "People are looking for something different," said one official, speaking on condition of anonymity. "The old parties promise the same things and deliver nothing."
Surrender and Negotiation
Central to Sarki's analysis is what he calls the "surrender mentality" among northern elites. He argues that regional leaders have surrendered policy initiative to federal authorities while demanding only a share of federal appointments and contracts. When negotiations over federal positions break down, as they did twice in 2023, northern states receive no alternative development plans.
The All Progressives Congress, which has governed Nigeria since 2015, experienced exactly this dynamic. In August 2023, negotiations over ministerial appointments stalled for 47 days as regional party factions demanded specific portfolios. During that period, no new infrastructure projects were announced for northern states, and the North-East Development Commission received no additional funding.
Traditional rulers in Adamawa and Niger states have begun speaking publicly about the need for change. The Emir of Kano, whose position carries significant political weight, told reporters in February that "development cannot wait for Abuja's calendar." The statement was widely interpreted as criticism of the federal-first approach that has dominated northern politics.
What Renewal Would Require
Sarki's piece does not merely criticise; it proposes a framework for internal renewal. The commentator argues that northern states must develop independent revenue bases, reduce dependence on federal allocations, and invest in technical education aligned with local economic needs.
Kano State provides a test case. Governor Abba Yusuf, who took office in May 2023, inherited a state with a debt profile of 187 billion naira and infrastructure backlogs estimated at 420 billion naira by the state planning commission. His administration has prioritised road construction and market rehabilitation, but faces pressure to demonstrate results before the midpoint of his term.
In Katsina, where President Bola Tinubu was born, the dynamics are more complex. The state government announced plans to rehabilitate three dams and expand irrigation capacity, potentially benefiting the cotton and wheat farmers who form the electoral base. However, implementation has moved slowly, and farmers in Daura reported that promised inputs had not arrived by March.
Community Response
Ordinary citizens in northern cities have responded to Sarki's analysis with a mix of agreement and scepticism. In Jos, where Plateau State has seen intermittent ethnic violence alongside economic stagnation, residents at theterminus market said they want to see policy changes but have heard promises before.
"Every election, politicians say things will change," said Amina Yusuf, a food trader who has operated in the market for 14 years. "My children still cannot find jobs after finishing school. The same people who make promises are the ones who collect contracts."
Young professionals in Kaduna have offered a more optimistic assessment. A group of software developers operating from a co-working space in Barnawa has begun organising town halls to discuss the region's economic potential, specifically targeting opportunities in agriculture technology and renewable energy. The initiative, called Northern Future Labs, attracted 200 participants to its first event in January.
"We are not waiting for politicians," said Ibrahim Musa, one of the organisers. "If the old leaders want to negotiate their retirement packages, that is their business. We are building something different."
What Comes Next
Sarki's analysis has not gone unanswered. Senior APC officials in Abuja released a statement dismissing what they called " armchair commentary" and pointed to federal infrastructure projects in the North-East and North-West. The statement listed 12 road projects and three university expansions as evidence of commitment to the region.
However, the conversation Sarki started appears unlikely to end there. With national elections four years away, the pressure on northern politicians to show concrete results is intensifying. The 2027 electoral calendar will begin shaping regional alliances before the end of this year, and the positions taken in the coming months will determine whether Northern Nigeria pursues genuine renewal or returns to the familiar patterns of power negotiation.
Watch for developments in Kano and Kaduna, where state governments are preparing mid-term reports. Those documents will reveal whether Sarki's critique has influenced actual policy or remains confined to WhatsApp groups and political salons.
The Emir of Kano, whose position carries significant political weight, told reporters in February that "development cannot wait for Abuja's calendar." The statement was widely interpreted as criticism of the federal-first approach that has dominated northern politics.What Renewal Would RequireSarki's piece does not merely criticise; it proposes a framework for internal renewal. However, implementation has moved slowly, and farmers in Daura reported that promised inputs had not arrived by March.Community ResponseOrdinary citizens in northern cities have responded to Sarki's analysis with a mix of agreement and scepticism.
