Gulf States Must Diversify Defence Now — Geography Leaves No Choice, Expert Says

June 30, 2026 3 min read

An expert from Chatham House told an audience in Dalian, China on Thursday that Gulf states face mounting pressure to diversify their defence strategies as geographic reality increasingly constrains their options between competing global powers.

Geography as Strategic Constraint

The Gulf region sits at the crossroads of two of the world's most consequential military and economic powers. Speaking at a forum in Dalian, the Chatham House expert argued that this positioning forces Gulf governments into difficult trade-offs they cannot avoid indefinitely.

"When your geography makes you strategically indispensable to multiple great powers, you must develop capabilities that do not depend on any single patron," the expert told delegates. The analysis focuses on how supply chain vulnerabilities and political shifts in Washington or Beijing can leave Gulf partners exposed.

The US-China Competition Factor

The United States has maintained decades of defence partnerships with Gulf states, providing weapons systems, training, and security guarantees. China, meanwhile, has expanded its economic footprint across the region through infrastructure projects and trade agreements, creating parallel channels of influence.

Chatham House researchers have tracked how this competition creates complications for Gulf governments. Weapons maintenance contracts, spare parts supplies, and software updates can all become hostage to broader geopolitical disputes between the major powers.

What Diversification Actually Means

Defence diversification does not simply mean buying from a wider range of vendors. The expert explained that Gulf states need to develop indigenous maintenance capabilities, invest in domestic defence manufacturing where possible, and maintain relationships with multiple major powers without becoming subordinate to any one agenda.

This approach requires significant capital investment and technical expertise that many Gulf states are actively building through partnerships with European defence firms, South Korean weapons manufacturers, and Turkish drone producers.

Economic Dimensions of Defence Policy

The defence diversification argument carries economic weight as well. Gulf states have invested heavily in defence procurement from the United States, creating dependencies that affect their fiscal planning and industrial development strategies.

Local media in Gulf states have reported growing debate about how to structure weapons purchases to protect against political changes in supplier countries. Elections in major powers can shift defence priorities, leaving Gulf partners with aging equipment and limited support options.

Implications for Regional Stability

The analysis from Dalian arrives at a moment of heightened activity in Gulf defence planning. Several Gulf Cooperation Council members have announced expanded defence budgets for the coming fiscal year, with funds allocated to developing domestic capabilities alongside traditional procurement relationships.

The expert noted that Gulf states which successfully diversify their defence partnerships may gain more freedom in regional disputes, while those that remain heavily dependent on a single major power could find their foreign policy options constrained at critical moments.

What Comes Next

Watch for upcoming defence procurement announcements from Gulf states in the coming months. Several major weapons contracts are due for renewal, and the decisions Gulf governments make will signal whether they are heeding the diversification advice circulating in forums from Dalian to London.

The broader question of how smaller states navigate competition between major powers is not unique to the Gulf. Nations across Africa and Asia face similar pressures as US-China rivalry intensifies, making the strategic calculus emerging from this expert analysis relevant well beyond the Persian Gulf.